Lakers on the Razor's Edge

In 2002, Kobe Bryant had a shot at matching Bill Russell's 11 titles.

On June 12, 2002 I stood in a crowded, smelly hallway underneath the stands of New Jersey's Meadowlands. A few minutes earlier, at mid-court, David Stern had presented the Los Angeles Lakers with their third Larry O'Brien trophy in as many years. I was happy for basketball, which can always use mega-dominant stars, but sad for competition. The NBA, it seemed, was getting predictable again, like it was in Michael Jordan's heyday. The Los Angeles Lakers had just swept the New Jersey Nets to win the third straight champsionship of the Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant era. Until further notice, this was the team that was going to keep on winning the big enchilada.

Everywhere you looked in those locker rooms, and in that hallway, there were freshly printed hats, walls sticky with champagne, and really happy looking people in slick L.A. stylings.

And reporters. From all over the world, crowded around whichever famous person was talking. Me? I'm no dummie. I was right up close to chatty and thoughtful legend Magic Johnson, who was presiding over a gargantuan gaggle of TV cameras and microphones. He talked about every topic under the sun -- whatever anyone asked him about -- with the glee of a lifelong Laker. There was no interrupting him for anything.

Until another, large throng of people came rolling down this same dank hallway, cameras and stylings in tow. The throngs shifted, like amoebas, the one letting the other slip by ... barely. As it did, it became clear that the other throng starred Kobe Bryant, in backwards baseball cap and insanely vivacious leather jacket, avec trophy.

Whatever Johnson had been talking about was forgotten. After a beat, the new question became: how many of those is he going to get? At that point Kobe Bryant was not yet 24, and already had three rings. It was hard to imagine how the Los Angeles Lakers could ever be beat again, the way they played. What did Kobe Bryant have, twelve, fifteen more years to keep trying?

It was not rash of Magic Johnson to bring up the possibilty that Kobe Bryant might flirt with Bill Russell's 11 championships.

Today it's May 2, 2007, a few weeks shy of five years later. The story of the Laker dynasty's demise has been well told, and the math of Kobe Bryant's career has changed dramatically. Once his titles multiplied on their own. Now it takes some deep calculus -- with many variables -- to figure out how he might even get one more before he departs either superstardom or the Los Angeles Lakers.

Kobe Bryant is on the cover of the current HOOP magazine, where Jeramie McPeek asks Kobe Bryant if he ever misses playing with Shaquille O'Neal. Even though the pair fueded famously, now that Kobe Bryant has less experienced teammates, he can't deny a little nostalgia for his old teammates:

Do I miss playing with him? I wouldn't say I miss playing with him, but I think that sometimes I get a little nostalgic and think about the team we had, in particular that second run toward the NBA Finals when everything was just clicking and we were running the system perfectly. ... A lot of the things that veterans do go unnoticed -- the years of experience thay they have go unnoticed, [the things] they do that don't show up in the box score, things that they have picked up through the years that make a world of difference. So that's something that I probably took for granted my first few [years]. I think I just assumed that everybody played the game the same way and had the same level of understanding, but you only gain that from experience.

Translation: his current teammates are not at that level.

The essential conundrum of the Laker franchise is that Kobe Bryant is, unlike his most important teammates, performing at his peak right now. How much longer will he be a championship-quality blue-chipper? Certainly, Kobe Bryant is hearing the ticking of the clock, as Rich Hammond of the LA Daily News reports:

"We definitely have to get to that elite level, and get to that elite level, like, now," Kobe Bryant said last week in Phoenix. "Am I an old 28? No. When I hit 31, I'll probably be an old 31."

Tonight: The End of the Road for This Roster?
The Los Angeles Lakers stare at a 10:30 ET elimination game tonight in Phoenix. Their defense, and even their hustle, have been bad. Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, and even Kobe Bryant (having his back worked on by Laker staff) are playing gimpy. Most betting lines have Phoenix double-digit favorites to polish off the purple and gold at home tonight.

Read the Los Angeles Lakers quotes from their practice yesterday. Kobe Bryant says he has never seen Phil Jackson more annoyed. Phil Jackson says it has been tough to get the team to play hard in games and practice, and plenty of outlets picked up this classic Jackson quote:

I did tell them that they had the brainpower of slugs or earthworms.

It's hard to find anyone who thinks the Los Angeles Lakers will win. Brian Kamenetzky is with the team, and writes on the L.A. Times Los Angeles Lakers Blog:

There was a palpable Dead Man Walking vibe down in El Segundo today. No doubt this had at least something to do with the mood in the media waiting room, where the Los Angeles Lakers have, far as I could tell, been written off (in the interests of full disclosure, I am among those who feel the Los Angeles Lakers have no real chance of winning the series). That gave tomorrow night's Game 5 less the feel of a playoff game and more of a nationally televised execution- appropriate, since it'll likely pre-empt Law and Order reruns on TNT. More importantly, though, talking with Luke Walton, L.O., and Kobe, I wasn't blown away with the sense that the players think they can shock the world with a comeback. P.J. was very emphatic that he still believes it can happen, but the troops? Not so sure.

Look: maybe the Los Angeles Lakers can turn this thing around, come back from 3-1 down, and knock off Phoenix in this series. But assuming they don't? Time for some serious soul-searching. What's this roster going to look like? When, if ever, is Kobe Bryant going to hold his fourth Podoloff?

The winds of change are blowing.

Keeping it Together Has Worked for Other Teams
Maturation. Health. Teamwork. Kurt from the Laker blog Forum Blue & Gold gets the argument, but tells me that no one in Los Angeles really thinks doing nothing is an option:

Under the very best of circumstances -- everyone healthy and playing well as a team -- the Los Angeles Lakers as constructed are a second-tier team in the West, maybe a four seed. I'd compare it to Houston (or maybe Denver), a team that none of the contenders really want to face, but a team that likely couldn't beat them in a seven game series. Just about everyone in the organization has said they are "one player" away, and that's fairly accurate, if that is a high-quality player.

The other thing the Los Angeles Lakers have had exposed in the playoffs is a lack of the confidence and composure a couple of battle-tested veterans can bring. You see it in San Antonio, Detroit, in other teams moving on. They are unflappable. The string of injuries created a lot of adversity for this team -- and still does -- but how the Los Angeles Lakers responded to that adversity has raised a lot of chemistry questions. In addition to the "one player" some more veteran stability is needed on this squad.

Also (and this strays a little from the question), the big off-season question becomes point guard. The spot has been at the root of the Los Angeles Lakers perimeter defense problems for two seasons now. It's safe to say Smush is gone (and will make a fine back-up PG somewhere else, in a less structured offense, if he can accept the backup role). Farmar will be solid someday, but right now he needs someone to share that role with. The Los Angeles Lakers don't have the money to get a Billups or Mo Williams in free agency. So this will be the most important, and hardest question, for management to deal with this off-season.

One other factor not to be ignored: the Los Angeles Lakers were missing Chris Mihm, a solid center, all season. This summer, when he is finally expected to be healthy, he will become a free agent.

What About Tinkering with Free Agents and the Like?
Take a look at the salary picture. There is the potential for some cap space on the horizon -- if you ignore the need to re-sign a lot of the players everybody likes, including Ronny "Heartbeat" Turiaf and Luke Walton.

Scouts Inc. Insider Jeff Weltman makes clear the free agent route is complicated for the Los Angeles Lakers:

The Los Angeles Lakers' summer payroll (not counting draft picks and cap holds) will be approximately $58 million, and L.A. will contend with the free agency of starters Walton and Smush Parker.

Walton has had an excellent season, and despite his injuries, his stock has never been higher. Smush Parker, whose defense and reliable 3-point shooting have served as a good complement to Kobe Bryant, has recently been at odds with Jackson, obscuring his future as a Laker.

Mihm is a free agent as well, and his status will rely largely on his health.

The course the Los Angeles Lakers pursue with their own free agents may determine how active they are in the free-agent market. With a midlevel exception the most it can spend, the team's available funds below the tax will be determined by how it first addresses its own free agents.

The following summer the committed payroll will decline to less than $49 million, but that number does not reflect the two interim draft picks, any cap holds, or this summer's activity. It also comes at the expense of the expiring contracts of Brown, Maurice Evans, Ronny Turiaf and Sasha Vujacic.

Big Trades and the Andrew Bynum Conundrum
In June 2005, the Los Angeles Lakers had the tenth pick in a so-so draft -- and they struck gold. They got that rarest of NBA possessions: a strong, mobile big man with the potential to develop great skill. By all reports, the selection of high-schooler Andrew Bynum was championed by Jim Buss, son of owner Jerry Buss, who is an emerging force in the organization.

Everybody loves the potential of Andrew Bynum. They say that if he develops as promised, he could be the next Brad Daugherty. A healthy Brad Daugherty is nothing to sneeze at.

But, is Andrew Bynum -- who turns 20 in October, and is only beginning to show what he might one day be -- so great that you'd pass up a shot a championship to keep him? Don't promising big men go bust at a reasonably high rate? Or what if he is all he's cracked up to be, but it takes him three more years to be at the top of his game?

With his big upside and reasonable contract, Andrew Bynum is the piece that could get the Los Angeles Lakers real help for Kobe Bryant The word is that Andrew Bynum could star in a package that might net the likes of Kevin Garnett, Jason Kidd, Mike Bibby, or Jermaine O'Neal. But, in part because of his potential, and in part because of organizational pride in making such a great pick, the Los Angeles Lakers are proving extremely reluctant to move him. Again, Kurt from Forum Blue & Gold:

It likely will take Andrew Bynum to get any of these guys done and I'm not sure Laker brass is willing to trade him for anyone. They wouldn't put him in the Kidd deal during the season, and I'm not sure that changes with Chris Mihm back next year. This was Jim Buss' guy, his pick, and I'm not sure he's available (or, maybe it would take KG).

Nobody Asked Me, But ...
Of those stars rumored to be on their way to Los Angeles, one makes the most sense to me. The story is that the Los Angeles Lakers turned down a trade with New Jersey that would have sent Andrew Bynum to New Jersey for Jason Kidd. If I ran the Los Angeles Lakers I would do it, for several reasons:

* Lamar Odom has the potential to be an awesome force, and has underperformed in Los Angeles. Jason Kidd is the only big-name player who is practically guaranteed to make Odom perform closer to his massive potential. A more effective Odom mitigates, somewhat, the loss of Andrew Bynum.

* Picture it! Kidd and Kobe Bryant side by side ... two ferocious winners motivated to win now. They'd win 30 NBA games playing alongside eighth graders. But they would be better than that. The Laker lineup would be much like New Jersey's current lineup. Only, in place of Vince Carter you have Kobe Bryant. In place of Richard Jefferson you have Luke Walton. And in place of Nenad Krstic you have Lamar Odom. I could keep going down the list. But the point is, that's a team that's ready to win now and Kidd solves the ball-sharing issues that have plagued this team (at the expense of the triangle? perhaps). Kidd gets the ball to spots where his teammates can use it. Odom, Kobe Bryant etc. can handle that.

* The Los Angeles Lakers have had lousy perimeter defense, and Kidd would improve that.

* The league is getting quicker and the Andrew Bynums of the world are a tad less massively important than they were a few years ago. Still massively important. But not quite what they used to be.

* Phil Jackson has a hard time walking and sitting. He can't hang on forever, and Kidd might fit his window better than any other player, too.
* It gives the Los Angeles Lakers a real chance at a title in the next three years. Can Andrew Bynum do that?

[More at myespn.go.com]